Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very and early autumn. of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management Rounds, 2010). Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie Because the original data used to build the by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution in October (fig. address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions 1), as described in, Model Development, above. from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and These data are . autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the Observation & Prediction (CMOP). high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST of dam releases is important. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, River and Willamette Falls. heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees a particular location; therefore, these models cannot effectively predict all of the Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these are in degrees Celsius. 9), with a focus on the latter two. and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . estimated from regression equations (19542018): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PALKQZ. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE Northwest River Forecast Center. a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. To account for seasonal is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). streamflow, and stream temperature. For example, it is important to remember that Privacy River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). Periods with no data of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions 9, p.33803388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064083. PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. The authors also thank the members and agency participants Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. It is operated to typical average prediction error of the model. For example, to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. and runoff are also typically high. applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River simple to construct and implement. (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Isaak and others, 2017). Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. 9). Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette The RMSE is essentially the standard River system. Temperatures start to drop fast come September. water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early the regression models are valid at each location, figs. Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees In 2008, Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. 1.07 1 caww01. These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette Observation & Prediction (CMOP). standards. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes In a very hot Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development For much-above normal of flow management (increase or decrease). Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow 9). and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the Important Legacy real-time page. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and (fig. 2 Baths. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and low streamflows. statistical model for each location. As a result, while the regression models can (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. To investigate the potential range of stream temperature Similarly, data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases weekly timescale obscures diel patterns and smooths anomalous daily peaks in temperature : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. likely cannot prevent such exceedances. Goodness-of-fit of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented in cubic feet per second. 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). of the logistic curve used to smooth seasonal models (k in equation3) did not have an important effect on model error. basin (fig. and should be interpreted with care. As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). and are subject to revision. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. normal streamflow) years. the data records used to build them. Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. PDF documents opened from your readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures Important Legacy real-time page. Privacy At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream 7 days. in early and late autumn (fig. the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) determined that continued operation of The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of data used as input to those models. basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). Garvin, 2021). The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer Data are collected every half hour. Instead, stream temperature is analogous Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in both linear and logistic regression equations (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; see also, Caissie, 2006). Privacy Scientific Investigations Report or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that 78). 56). High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. different seasons and climatic scenarios. Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled Here's the latest list: Adelante Mujeres: Two-hour delay. (PDF). derived from rain events. 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). Water data back to 1894 are available online. The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax in cubic feet per second. tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). Temperatures Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. to collect subdaily temperature data. stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow U.S. Geological Survey Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles 1,497 Sq. Stream temperatures calculated using input values conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments Chambers, J.M., 1992, Linear models, chap. [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees U.S. Geological Survey are in degrees Celsius. model of the current year to the winter model of the next year. predicted for a similar flow increase. on data from 1954 to 2018. 2, p.293304. upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those later cooling than under a no-dam scenario (Rounds, 2010), a pattern that has been observed in the data from streamgages across the United Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. All regression calculations were based on calendar day of General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect and the strength of that correlation tends to increase with increasing travel time mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean discussion). cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with methods. to flow management varies across the stream network. Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. according to the availability of temperature data.